Demography hands the White House to Barack Obama
Dickson Igwe - Sunday, November 11th, 2012 at 8:42 AM
Dickson Igwe
A slow economy and poor labor market was not a critical liability for a US President with favourable demographics on his side. In a divided and polarized USA, it was more crucial to win the battle of demography, than the battle of the economy.
Barack Obama’s election victory on the morning of Wednesday November 7, 2012, was a shock to the Republican body politic. It was also an intensely historic moment. In the midst of an unemployment rate of nearly 8%, and an anemic economy, no President since Francis Delano Roosevelt had won an election victory in such an environment.
For Republicans, Barack, although the First African American to become President of the United States, was simply another Jimmy Carter: a one term President. Barack was considered a big government type; the President was even called a socialist with questionable birth credentials. A significant percentage of Republicans, including the republican base of white Evangelicals were unsure whether the President was even a US Citizen by birth, or a Christian.
The sad truth, as described in the Friday, November 9 Edition of the National Memo, was that, ‘’ an awful lot of white Protestant Evangelicals, across the DEEP SOUTH especially, ‘’ saw Barack Obama as, ‘’ a secular stand in for the ANTI CHRIST: a smooth talking deceiver representing Liberal cosmopolitanism in its most treacherous disguise.’’
For four years, the right wingers in Congress and the Senate refused to play ball with a black President. Instead, they waited for his inevitable exit from the White House. The Republicans were very wrong in thinking they would drive Barack from power that easily.
What went wrong for the Republicans was this: in a USA with a swiftly growing Latina population that no longer trusted or even liked the Republicans; Jews who vote Democrat in much bigger numbers than they vote Republican, women who were a majority of the electorate and that voted Democrat in general; a black minority that was overwhelmingly Democratic; and a liberal white population in the North East and California that was weary of the right wing soundings of Evangelicals from the South, the Democrats had demography on their side.
The simple fact is that race played a significant role in this election. 72% of voters were white. And most of these, especially white males favoured the Republicans. Republicans were very mistaken if they thought they could win with the white vote alone, however.
The white voter’s control of the US political process was ending, and Republicans failed to reach out to Latinas and blacks sufficiently, to prop up their overwhelming advantage among white voters.
And in a new political world, and fast changing electoral landscape, the white voter is going to continue to decrease as a proportion of the overall US voting population as the years pass. If Republicans fail to get some reasonable element of support from minorities, especially Latinas, the Republican Party will be at a permanent disadvantage in US politics.
However, Barack Obama held on to enough of the white vote, 39%, especially white females, to ensure that his solid support from other key demographics like Jews, Latinas and blacks, took him to the required electoral college math for victory. On the other hand, Romney received over 60% of the white vote, and the white older male voted overwhelmingly Republican. Sadly for him, that wasn’t enough.
And indeed USA economics, with a stubborn unemployment metric, and slow economic growth, add annual trillion dollar deficits and a 16 trillion dollar national debt mountain, was bad for Barack Obama and the Democrats.
However, demographics that put whole subsets of the US population out of play for a mainly white and Evangelical Republican Party was a much worse equation: it was also an albatross. Romney began the race as a, ‘’ SEVERE CONSEERVATIVE,’’ then the Republican Presidential Nominee moved to the center as the race progressed, becoming a, ‘’ REPUBLICAN MODERATE in the mould of John McCain.
However, moderate voters, women, Latinas, Blacks, and Liberals, simply did not trust him, or better stated, the ‘rabid right wingers’ hiding in the alleys and recesses of the US Capitol Building.
The real power behind the contemporary Republican Party is The Tea Party, and Paul Ryan’s right wing cabal in the US Congress, vocalized in the media by the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck, Ann Coulter, and Bill O’Reilly. This has been obvious simply observing how senior Republican figures kowtow to the nuances and demands of this right wing element in the party.
Another underlying dynamic was the issue of wealth inequality. Globalization has made the gap between rich and middle class much wider in the United States. This is the result of US manufacturing having shifted to low cost countries, especially in the Asian Pacific. But many of these plants and assets overseas are still owned by America’s wealthy, making them even wealthier still. However, manufacturing, moving out of the US, means fewer jobs for American workers. A typical example is APPLE, and similar technology businesses, manufacturing their hugely attractive digital devices in places such as China and Taiwan.
And Mitt Romney, a multi millionaire venture capitalist was easily painted as, RICHIE RICH, who was born with a gold spoon in his mouth. Romney was even termed the Outsourcer in Chief, a parody of his capitalist credentials that probably stayed in the minds of middle class voters. This image of aloof privilege wasn’t helped by derogatory remarks made against the 47% of the US population who Romney described basically as sycophants.
Romney, with his chiseled good looks, was described as a man who never went through the trials and tribulations that a poor Barack Obama experienced at an early age. This was a narrative written by the political wizards in the Democratic Party, led by the brilliant and enigmatic David Axelrod. The drumbeat was that Romney was the rich man’s candidate, who never really cared about struggling auto workers, and a bottom line capitalist that was ready to throw US automobile manufacturing to the dogs during the recession of 2007-2009.
Apart from factors, such as a poor first debate performance by Barack Obama, then an act of God in a hurricane named Sandy that allowed voters a second look at a President in his presidential role of Rescuer in Chief, always an asset for the incumbent, this election was a song to a divided USA.
Whites predominantly voted for Mitt Romney, while Jews, Latinas, and Blacks voted Barack Obama. A simple look at the election rallies showed the makeup of each party’s base. Behind Romney and Ryan, the faces were predominantly white and Anglo Saxon. At Democratic rallies however, the audiences were eclectic, with a rainbow coloured mural.
In the swing states, the Latinas, the swiftest growing segment of the US population, who voted overwhelmingly for Obama, meant the Democrats winning states such as New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and probably Florida, a state that was still counting ballots as this story was posted, but appears to be leaning Democrat.
In essence, Romney’s failure to connect with the Latina segment of the US population, ‘cooked his goose.’ It used to be said in the US, that economics won elections. Today and tomorrow it will be demographics.
Now, Barack Obama has the opportunity to protect and shape his legacy. In the second term the President does not have to worry about re election. He will now be able to fine tune OBAMACARE; a pseudonym for his overhaul of the American health care system towards a more socialized dynamic.
Ominously, for the American right, the US President will now appoint one or two Supreme Court judges. This will give the President the opportunity to paint a new mural in America’s ideological politics. Two liberal judges will mean the liberal agenda both protected and strengthened. This will be bad news indeed for the right wing Evangelical South, with its anti abortion, low taxes, gun loving, and small government stance.
However, the greatest legacy Obama will want to leave is a united country. Bringing together all the various strands of American society, from blacks and whites, to the rich and middle class, and bridging the ideological divide of right and left, will not be easy. A symbolic first step may be to offer Mitt Romney, a very decent family man and a gifted moneymaker, a top post in the Cabinet. Commerce or business Secretary is one option being thrown around.
Yes, building a truly united America is the greatest challenge, social and political, facing the greatest nation on earth.
THEÂ End
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17 Comments
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Demographics were the “Effect” and not the “Cause” of President Obama’s Victory!
If Demographic Determinism has now displaced Economic Determinism in U.S. Elections, then how was it that the Republicans maintained control of the House of Representatives?
A major reason why Mitt Romney lost is that the American people rejected the Republican
“trickle-down economics” which failed under George W. Bush and produced the Recession–the effects of which, to say nothing of their obstructionism, they tried dishonestly to blame on President Obama.
The insulted “47 percent” not only rejected Mitt Romney, but an additional “4 percent” of the electorate did as well: rendering
President Obama a 51 percent plurality.
To simply argue Demographics is to deny Obama supporters their ability to make wise political analyses and choices–beyond their gender, race, sexual orientation and ethnicity–and indeed their income!
Mitt Romney was not Credible!
Clearly, neither Democrats nor Republicans can win an election a single bloc of voters; it requires a grouping of several blocs of voters. Traditionally, there was a heavy dependence on White voters. But the numbers in this voting bloc is undergoing a steady decline while other blocs, ie, Hispanics, Asians, Blacks are surging.
President Obama and the Democrats programmes were more appealing to these minor blocs. Consequently, the Democrats put together a coalition of Hispanics(71%), Asians(73%), Blacks (93%) and Whites (39%).
Carter G. Woodson said in his book: When you controls a mans thinking; You don’t have to worry about his actions. Mr. Ignoramos head is stuck so far up in the White Mans rear end, his brain is totally contaminated. Mr. Ignoramos and the insignificant others just needs to go and get a life, and deal with what really matters.
@Virgin Goddard Resident. I highly doubt that you are an authentic American.For if you were, you would be advocating for American exceptionalism, respect democratic principles, respect for election results regardless of whom win, recognizing demographic changes …….etc.
Instead, he/she seems to be yearning for the America rof olde. An America where one ethnic group dominates. That America is in the rear view mirror and a new America is on the horizon. This America is about a new demographics. And any group that ignores this changing is asking to be shipped off to the wilderness.
The Republican Party and its followers are dealing poorly with walloping in the presidential election. The election was about taking the country in two different direction and the Democrats won. And instead of offering President Obama their cooperation and collaboration in moving the country forward, the Republicans are hell bent to further divide and tear the country apart. Why? Because they did not prevail at the polls in termination the President’s lease on the White. It’s embarrassing to say but it appears that many in the Republican Party despised the Obamas being in the White House. The White House is not for Whites only but all duly elected Americans: Blacks, Asians, Whites, Hispanics.
Virgin Gorda Resident, stop embarrassing Virgin Gorda.
To Virgin Gorda resident. Lots of people come to the USA from all over the world and as soon as they get here they apply for welfare and of course gets it, even though they lied and say that they will never be dependant on the USA to support them. I hope that you will never in your lifetime need medical care in the USA and cannot afford to pay for it. You must be a white racist or a black ignoramous. I am an American and I vote for Barack Obama.OOps, I am also a virgin Islander by birth.
The demographics of US electorate is changing with warped speed. In at the last three presidential election cycles, the percentage of the White electorate has decline while the percentage of Black and Brown electorate, especially Hispanics, has skyrocketed. The fastest growing voting block is Hispanics; their presence is sweeping across the US most notably in Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Texas……etc. The rapid growth growth of Hispanics has earned it 4 additional seats in the House of Representative, increasing its electoral vote from 34 to 38 the second highest total in the country; California has 55. What does this increasing demographics mean?
It means that in future in order to win the presidency candidates cannot focus on one voting block any more. Candidates will have woo and consolidate different voting blocks. Increasingly, the Republican Party is becoming a regional and southern party. It cannot depend solely on the White vote any longer and if it wants to win future elections it will have to extend its outreach to broaden its base. Given its governing philosophy this will require a major philosophical transformation.
These various voting blocks are politically savvy and will gravitate to the political party that serve both their short and long term interest. In the recent election, the Democrat had better programme of addressing their needs and interest. The Democrats had better plans and programmes and executed a stronger and more focused, targeted campaign. Their leveraging of technology to microtarget various groups in battleground states was unmatched and highly effective. The Republicans, inspite of a huge war chest, struggled to find its footing—the millionaires and billionaires that funneled hundreds of million of outside money into Romney campaign realized little to no return on their huge investment. The Democrats were quicker at the trigger.
The Democrats brilliant strategies and tactics in the battleground states, coupled with the demographics coalition along with other campaign focus, pushed Team Obama across the finish line. Gov Romney team was outwitted.
Thus, despite all the voter suppression, the racial hatred, the lies, the flip flops, Citizens United money, birthrism …..etc it can down to one man or one woman vote and the better team won.
The least that Dr.Igwe could do is to offer
President Obama congratulations within his rather his cold–though accurate–analysis of the results of U.S. Elections 2012.
Dr. Igwe provided a good, surface, tip of iceberg summary of the recently concluded US presidential election(Oops! They are still counting votes in FL), which was supposedly won by President Barack Obama. I say supposedly because voting is just the first part of the process. US presidential election is a voters vs electors process.
The US presidential election is not decided by the majority of the popular vote or the plurality of the vote; it is decided by the Electoral College. What is the Electoral College? It is a process, not a place, that the Founding Fathers set up in the Constitution to pick a president. There are 538 electors; each state plus the DC is apportioned electors based on each state having 2 senators plus their number og House members. California has 55 electors and the lowest each state or DC can have is 3. 270 electoral votes are needed to win. How are electoral votes awarded?
Except for Maine and Nebraska, it is winner take all process within whomever getting the plurality of votes in a state gets all the votes. For example, if one candidate gets 50.1% of popular votes in a state and the other candidate gets 49.99%, the 49.99% candidate gets 0 (nought); Maine and Nebraska proportioned their electoral votes. The states and DC electors will meet in Washington DC on 17 December to pick the president. It is important to note that electors can vote for whomever they choose.
This long-winded foray into the Electoral College was done to say that President Barack Obama recent victory at the polls was based on more than demographics. True, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, women, and millenials voted overwhelmingly for the President. But we need to look at the forces that attracted all these groups.
First, the US is a nation with 2 competing visions, 2 major political parties, and is divided into Blue States, Red States and Purple-Swing-Battleground States. Blue states tilt Democratic, Red states lean Republic and Purple states are toss up. Red and Blue states are safe states. The Swing states of New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio are where most of campaign battles were waged. The Democratics had a superior battle plan and ground game and won 8 of the 10 Battle ground states so far; Romney carried North Carolina and Florida is still counting votes.
Secondly, the seeds for a President Obama second term were planted early in his first term. Among these seeds were the unpopular and risky auto bailout and appointing Hilary Clinton, his primary Democratic primary rival, as Sec. of State. 1of 8 Ohioans work in the auto industry with the bailout saving over a million jobs. The appointment of Sec Clinton brought former President Bill ” The Big Dog” Clinton fully on board the Obama express; Bill Clinton campaigned tirelessly for Obama. President Obama skillfully employed the team of rivals concept, along with Quintus Cicero’s advice to his younger brother Marcus Cicero about keeping your friends close, but your enemies closer.
Thirdly, the Democrats had clear vision of building the economy from the bottom up and from thr middle out, investing in education, onshoring manufacturing and other jobs, investing in green jobs, leaving women healthcare choices to women, maintaining a strong foreign policy, protecting Medicare and social security, asking millionaires and billionaires to pay a nominal more in taxes…etc. Moreover, he rolledout a plan to pay for these things. On the other hand, Romney banked on the racial hatred of Obama to propel him into the White House and refused to provide any specifics on how he would pay for his $5T tax plan. Further, he refused to released no more than 2 years of his tax returns. Does anyone know what Romney stands for? We know that he is unprincipled, lacks courage, stretches the truth and is the king of flip flops. He had numerous opportunities for a Sister Souljah moment to refute the scurrilous comments about President Obama and his campaign but failed miserably. Instead he used the dog whistle approach to skirt issues.
Fourth, the Republican vision was about trickle down economics, little or no regulations, small government, reduced taxes..etc. And the Democrats was about sensible regulations, balanced approached on budget issues, protecting the middle class, protecting Obamacare, protecting Medicare, critical role for government (Hurricane Sandy validates)…etc. The Democrats vision prevailed on election day.
There are many other reasons why Obama won but in the interest of time and space it best not to go any farther. But I will say the changing demographics aided Obama victory but there were also many other factors for dominance at the polls. The Democrats ran a much better campaign to tie the changing demographics with their interest.
He won the popular vote.
Thank you, I hope the VG resident read your post. People just love to bring up race and nonsense because it riles emotions. The fact is the younger folks have much more common sense and can see pass their nose holes. Those polls that had the race tied didn’t factor in the young folks who were for Obama because he wasn’t talking ignorance about abortion, guns and bibles. WE have a set of people from the 1980s parading on news stations talking about being political experts and 90% of those asses were dead wrong. They are stuck in the type writer days, they have no clue what the modern day folks find important to them. Obama did and ran a great ground game. Sense will beat nonsense any day, all day, regardless of colour.
@ Eagle and Buffalo: Excellent Analysis
What happened to Dr.Igwe’s “President Mitt Romney? Part 2″ article that was never produced?
And why is Dr.Igwe ascribing Obama’s solid Victory on mere “demographics?”
Was there no wisdom, zeal, passion and reasoning influencing the demography?
Obama will never unite the USA. The country is totally dysfunctional with almost 50% of the country dependent on handouts. The election was not based on race, religion or several other factors but on the perception of what the government would provide citizens. Thus we have the Union vote for the democrats, who expect lots of union support from the government and get it.(Money) Lots of money goes to the unions who in turn support the democrats. You have lots of folks who voted because of Obama cell phones (Free cell phones given away), lots of folks who get welfare of many types. Basically a very small percentage of the USA population supports about 50% of the rest.
The middle class is being killed by taxes, fees, obamacare, etc.
The USA is very different than a few years ago and I do not expect much of the country to prosper. Too many problems and too many handouts.
This also a problem for the BVI as the USA middle class can no longer afford to go to the BVI. Europe is even in worse shape, almost a basket case.
You must be a VG resident with no clue as to what’s going on in the USA. There is no way Romney could beat Obama running on pure lies and ignorance. People voted for Obama because they thought he was better than Romney. Are you telling me that the white women, most of whom voted for Obama is because of food stamps and a cell phone? You are simply spewing the foolish talking points from Fox News.
Instead of admitting that they had nothing to run on, they double down on pure ignorance, accusing over 60million people in the USA as being free loaders. How the hell they’re going to win another election with that stupid attitude? Obama got over 60million votes, come on!! It seems it’s okay for Bush to give Wallstreet over one Trillion to bail them out but when people are hungry because of the recession the Government should just ignore them? RUBBISH! In every country there are people that need assistance, now more than ever. Of course you will find those that abuse the system but that’s in anything you do. You act as if people didn’t have food stamps, free phones and other perks under Bush and other Republicans. Obama came and met those things in place and will leave them there. It just happened that a few more needed assistance because of the recession, which is expected. Turn off Fox and turn on your brain!!
Have you ever heard of corporate welfare? Who is corporate welfare allocate to? Do you know that the majority of people of public assistance are White? Fox News will never report that.
two damning facts as far as Romney is concerned:
1. in Ohio most saw the economy as improving.
the unemployment rate there is lower than the national average
2. the more educated, regardless of race, voted overwhelmingly for Obama
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