Disturbance 34 upgraded to Tropical Depression 7
DDM - Friday, August 10th, 2012 at 9:07 AM
Current Location: 13.7N/45.3W
Geographic Reference: 945 miles East of Barbados
Movement: West at 22 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 (0 size / 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 (1 size / 2 intensity)
Changes From the Previous Forecast
There are no significant changes.
Forecast
Tropical Depression Seven continues quickly to the west. This general track is expected to continue for the next several days due to a strong ridge of high pressure north of the system. The forecast is similar to the previous and brings the system through the northern Windward or southern Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday.
There has been little change with the depression this evening. Showers and storms are not persisting near the center. Environmental conditions are expected to only be marginal for development. It appears as if low level winds will be unfavorable for intensification. Therefore, only slight intensification is forecast. An alternative scenario is for the system to degenerate into a tropical wave. This is the solution by nearly all of the dynamical model guidance.
Expected Impacts on Land
Windward and Southern Leeward Islands: Gusty wind and heavy rainfall are possible by Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday morning as the center passes.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Trinidad: Heaviest squalls and any tropical storm conditions should pass to the north over the weekend.
Eastern Caribbean: Squalls with tropical storm force winds and high waves are possible Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday night.
In the vicinity of the African Coast
A well-defined disturbance, labeled as Disturbance 35, is located near 13.3N/13.7W, or near the Gambia/Senegal border in West Africa. It is moving to the west at 10-15 mph and should emerge off the coast of Africa within the next 18-24 hours. There is model support for the development of this system in the eastern Atlantic. If development does occur, it is only likely to impact the Cape Verde Islands in the short term. It should gain enough latitude to clear the islands of the northeastern Caribbean with minimal impacts in the long term.
At present neither system pose a threat to the Virgin Islands however the forecasted tracks are in the early stages and both systems should still be monitored. The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will like to remind the general public that we are heading into the active part of the hurricane season and if preparations have not been made they are encouraged to do so. Please visit the DDM�s website at www.bviddm.com to receive future updates.
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