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COMMENTARY: BVI could have been offered billions if …

By Dickson Igwe, Contributor

Physical and economic recovery for the Virgin Islands, post the natural disasters of September 2017, requires a fitting of the country’s economic restorative models into the moulds of the twin western economic cultures of stimulus and austerity.

The western world is overflowing with cash. This is a consequence of quantitative easing, and monetary stimulus, combined with fearful and debt-laden consumers. This excess cash, brought about by the convergence of the preceding factors, should have been good for these Virgin Islands.

The territory requires billions of dollars in stimulus to rebuild, recover, and develop, after a September 2017 of disaster and tragedy.

Cash unavailable for recovery

However, that global ocean of cash is unavailable for recovery for the present, so it appears.

Why? Because of four factors: firstly, the UK and mother country is an economically austere social culture. Secondly, the UK, despite being a very wealthy and developed country is a frugal society that frowns upon ostentation and extravagance.

Thirdly, the UK governs the Virgin Island’s

financial management, albeit remotely and indirectly.

The Fourth factor is well understood. For years people in the territory have called for full transparency and accountability in the political culture. This never happened.

Secrecy

Secrecy in high places, over the past 20 years, is part of the governing culture of the Virgin Islands.

But, had there been a culture of transparency and accountability, then maybe, key global stakeholders and investors would have been much more willing to offer the territory the billions of dollars required for a full and swift recovery post-Irma and Maria.

Investors like transparency and accountability as this eases their concerns over how their assets are managed.

One click of the mouse offers them easy access to important charts, indexes, and reports on matters governing their investments.

This is impossible in an opaque and non-transparent culture. One of the recent paradoxes in economics is that Stimulus saved the world from depression after 2009.

Stimulus short-lived, Austerity sexy

However, the Stimulus period was short-lived. After economic growth-driven by stimulus was restored – albeit it was very weak growth – and the world saved from a terrible depression, the love affair with austerity was too ‘hot’ to ignore.

In Europe, Austerity was ‘sexy’. Austerity even became ‘cool’. Stimulus was abandoned.

But, Austerity was the ‘last thing’ the global economy needed after the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009.

So, the gains from Stimulus were reversed. Consumer demand, which was already weak before western governments intervened to stop a depression, began to decline once more.

The result was a further decade of economic stagnation, especially in the UK.

Deflation

Deflation meant that products and services remained on shelves.

The world was awash with cash that sat in banks seeking borrowers who were reluctant to take on new debt.

Consumer demand contracted. Prices refused to move upwards. Controlled inflation is a sign of satisfactory economic growth.

In the USA and UK, working-class voters were pummeled further by automation, robotics, and the wholesale export of manufacturing to South Asian shores.

The way was made for Donald Trump and Brexit. This was ironic, as both developments, economists argue, are not good for low paid workers in both countries.

Now, at the start of the stimulus programme of 2009, and in order to stave off a global depression, central banks in the western world created money out of thin air to stimulate spending and growth.

US can create money at will

Central banks are very powerful financial organisations backed by superpower hegemony. Superpowers such as the USA have the ability to create money at will.

The reason is investor confidence.

The US may be in debt to the tune of 20 trillion dollars with huge annual deficits of half a trillion.

However, global investors still view the United States as a safe haven owing to its military clout, an insular geography, a value system that protects private property and that values free enterprise.

Consequently, the US dollar remains the supreme global currency. US instruments, treasury bonds, and financial assets are thought to be a safe bet in a very unsafe and unpredictable world.

And central banks hold huge sway over the global economy. They can influence economic trends such as inflation and economic growth by their financial activities.

For example, what the Federal Reserve in Washington DC decides can impact these Virgin Islands and the wider Caribbean in terms of economic growth and the cost of borrowing.

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11 Comments

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  1. HMPH says:

    Completely mad theory

  2. Bvi patriot says:

    The final paragraph would suffice.

  3. Reasonable Man says:

    Most of this is complete nonsense

  4. Hmmmm says:

    The fourth point is the most important but ignored.

    Money could be available and is still available for transparent governments. Those who are willing to be clear over how things will be used, before it is used, and then show it as such afterwards.
    Whether you like risk or are frugal, no one wants to give money to those with a track record of misusing and stealing funds.

  5. Sam the man says:

    Transparency and accountability is something that the “No Direction Party” don’t agree with – they would rather continue to do things in secret hence the reason they suffer funds being made available – The premier is head of finance and continually refuses to publish accounts – if I had any say on how any other country invested I’d avoid BVI like the plague…. Until there is a new leadership this country will continue to decline, just wait until the next hurricane season…..sad but true

  6. Follow the money says:

    Who is going to realistically lend us a penny considering our minister’s failed investment in that airline? It was not only a questionable decision but one that lacked any transparency. Where was the money spent? Why didn’t the ministers chase the money or claw it back from the airline management? Why don’t we even know where it all went? Why are the ministers so silent on this one? Why not just arrest the airline managers and hold them up on the hill until they answer all these questions?

  7. CW says:

    The issue is BVI is that people are selfish and would rather see the people around them die slowly than pay a pittence of their own funds. As I have said all along, greedy shortsighted people are the issue with the BVI. That extends beyond leadership to poorly written articles and even more poorly conceived social programs. You need BILLIONS, the airport and other projects are a very small drop in the bucket.

  8. watcher says:

    Confused thinking at best. Is the implication that on its own with an accountable government the BVI could borrow billions.? Because that it pure nonsense. Without the UK guarantee the BVI could borrow peanuts. And then only at usurious rates.

  9. Econonics says:

    The “theory” presented here is among other factors that a government’s desire to manage expenses prudently (austerity) is part of the reason why the BVI is not getting billions in Stimulus money. The reality is that the UK has provided loan guarantees for billions, but they want some measures and tracking in place to be assured that there is a reasonable chance of the loans getting paid back. This is not austerity, but common sense especially in lieu of how the BVI handles its finances.

    Stimulus (government spending)here in the BVI can be analyzed by what has happened in the past. Projects like cruise ship pier/park, hospital, etc all of what fit into Igwe’s call for Stimulus.

    However, no one in their right mind is going to voluntarily lend, give, or back stimulus that has routinely been ripe with vast budget over runs, little accounting, and wide spread speculation about corruption.

    Not liking the UK’s position on insisting on transparency and good governance, a new bill board has been placed opposed to the UK’s involvement. Nobody knows who put it up there apparently, but the good money would bet it was the brain child of those benefiting from the bad money.

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