COMMENTARY: Predicting outcome of today’s election is a fool’s game
By Dickson Igwe, Contributor
The Virgin Islands possesses its own unique political ecosystem. These paradise islands are a difficult place to predict political outcomes successfully.
Now, politics is correctly termed a social science, like its sibling economics. It has its own specific math. Politics possesses its own assumptions, based upon objective observation of past social behaviour add current events.
Unlike the more physical sciences where there is high degree of exact assessment of various models, in political science, there is fog.
Politics uses history, demographics, economics, probability, assumption, presumption, statistics, and calculus, all the time using the laboratory of society and recent history to predict outcome.
Politics is also linear in that it looks back in time at past elections and voting behaviour. Politics also gazes into the present. It looks both ways before crossing the road, and arriving at a prediction. There is both symmetry and asymmetry in the projections of political watchers.
This Observer of Virgin Islands politics has learned the hard way that making the common assumptions derived from the older and larger democracies elsewhere, for the Virgin Islands, can be a huge mistake.
Then there is the prophetic. This is simple talk: palm reading and playing a game of Russian roulette. Nothing of substance has ever comes from this source. It is expecting answers from the Ouija board: ‘the witch doctor from Senegal’.
The Virgin Islands is a close-knit community with its own society, history and culture. Family and community play a greater role in the politics of the day than say the politics of the USA or UK. News gets around fast from family to village, and then community and town. The gossip mill is very powerful in deciding political outcomes.
An invisible news network of street corner talk and rumour driven by ‘friends, extended family, siblings and cousins’ is as powerful as the more conventional, visible, and established media in driving public opinion.
Predicting outcome a game of fools
Predicting political outcomes in the Virgin Islands is a game of fools, even more so for April 24, 2023.
However, any attempt this April will offer three insights for those who appreciate a more scientific approach than emotion and fairytale.
First, there is a high degree of voter anger and frustration in the land, over recent political behaviour. Second, the Commission of Inquiry and subsequent Order in Council are a hammer over the country, that makes everyone, politician, activist, and voter, more cautious. Third, ongoing investigations driven by the Commission’s recommendations put a shackle on those politicians accused of wrongdoing, running for office. There is a limit to the promises and power of Julius Caesar, and voters know this.
Then there are the common factors with Virgin Islands Elections. District candidates over the years are safer than At-Large. However, there may be indications that this may change on April 24, 2023. The number one reason is voter frustration and anger.
Six hundred and eighty-eight (688) new voters added to the electoral roll may have an impact on the election outcome. Assuming a turnout of 16000, which appears optimistic, this number represents over 5% of voters. These new voters depending on turnout could compose a greater number in percentage terms of the total number of voters.
Watch the At-Large vote
There is much talk of coalition government and there may be substance behind this. The fragmentation of the two party system – whether this will be- is worth observing on Monday and Tuesday.
How the preceding factors affect the upcoming election is anyone’s guess. From history, watch the At-Large Vote. The At-Large vote has been decisive as to which party forms the government. The At-large numbers also drive a narrative of the complete picture of the behaviour of voters, and any swing away from the incumbents to another party.
So goes the At-Large vote, so goes the election and government. Or so it would appear.
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Clearly based on basic Wikipedia research but at least the high school left wing politics is absent and there are no obviously wrong statements. It does beg the question ‘why has it been written?’ – the answer, the author likes to see himself in print.
Good analysis. Only 13 winners and 28 or so disappointed losers. Will the 13 winners be able to form a government? Will the 13 winners be safe from any retaliation? Will the losers challenge the election results, demand recounts, refuse to capitulate or step down, threaten legal action? Today and this whole week the drama will play out in the various types of BVI media and on the street.
Mr. Igwe, your statement about the prophetic is unclear. Because the prophetic , as I know it, has to do with revelations/utterances given to a person by the Holy Spirit which is usually communicated to the people.
It has nothing to do with palm reading and playing Russian roulette.
Furthermore, what is foolish, is to believe that nobody knows who is going to win because it has been revealed. Some get to know, some get to decide and then some get to know and decide.
And just to prove to you that the prophetic is real, remember the numbers 0088.
Everyone sitting in the HOA should go.
They all voted themselves for the “greedy bill” which would end up costing the tax payer millions.
Only when this bill was made public did they say they would repeal it, so if it is wrong why you all pass it in the first place?
Historically the at-large voting has been heavily linked to district voting so not sure how the parties that do not have candidates in each district expect to win a seat in HOA. This would mean the VIP voters would have to split their votes in major way and I’m not sure this will happen based on past voting trends. No party has won the at-large seats without performing decent in all districts, win or lose.
This man Igwe is a public officer and I find he gets away with too many political stories and commentary for a public officer probably because his other half is beloved by the colonial masters. Any other public officer would have been directed to stop long ago no matter who they were supporting.
The man has been writing for 24 years: if the people wanted him to stop, they would have acted- so shut it.
Thanks for the laugh. The article seems interesting save for the diss he trying to pass when it comes to prophesy which has nothing to do with palm reading, man from Senegal or the like. Out of order lol. What I want to know is what the number 0088 pertains to. Haha
In 2003 NDP won because of sweeping the at large. The door to door campaign included “if you want to vote VIP go ahead but give us the at large” it worked.
Since then the “all the way” strategy was introduced and VIP swept back victory the next cycle Since then for every election up until 2015 NDP remained strong at-large with variable performance on the districts.
In 2019 large voter dissatisfaction with the NDP post IrmaMaria, allegations of corruption, and infighting allowed VIP to sweep back both district and at large seats with a largely novice team.
The BVI is ripe for some shifts given all that has happened since but parties have become very savvy to promoting all the way and anti-vote splitting strategies and messages. Large voter turnout favors the challengers but a large number of challengers may favour the incumbents.
One can predict but I agree with Dixon it’s a toss up. A large proportion of the population is weary and favors some sort of coalition. Time will tell and we will know very shortly.
The devil or the deep blue sea