COMMENTARY: What happens after Britain leaves the European Union
By Dickson Igwe, Contributor
Now Jack the Bohemian is clearly a Brexiter. He is nuanced, cultured, and urbane in his style, but battle-hardened when standing up for England and quitting the European Union.
His passion for his English upper-class culture is unequivocal: even imperial. When this Old Boy speaks of the vital role the European Union plays in driving world peace and environmental sustainability, his eyes flutter in bewilderment and disbelief, and he looks up towards his receding hairline at his opposite’s Europhilia.
“When on earth did you become so European Dickson? Look at you. You looked like you dropped off of a banana boat from Nigeria,” he laughs hysterically.
Advantages of the UK remaining in EU
This Old Boy then proceeds to lecture him on the vast advantages of the UK remaining in the European Union, in terms of access to a marketplace of $500 million, and the leverage the EU possesses when fighting its place in a world ruled by the USA, and a swiftly rising China.
Jack the Brexiter is unimpressed. OK. Assume Prime Minister Boris Johnson gets his much-needed majority in parliament. Will a Conservative Majority allow Johnson’s Brexit Deal to pass into law? The answer is yes. Will Johnson have the power to return the UK to an elective dictatorship bypassing the will of parliament when a Prime Minster feels that is required? Yes!
‘Shaky Relationship’: If Scotland were to leave the UK
So far, as the majority he possesses in parliament is behind the Prime Minister in policies he initiates and drives, will the UK survive as a Union post Brexit? That is impossible to say at this time. The signs are ominous. If Scotland, which possesses a small majority for Remain, votes to leave the British Union for the European Union, then it is likely Northern Ireland follows suit. This will leave England, Wales and the OTs locked together in a shaky relationship.
OTs best get prepared for a much more interventionist, and even neo-imperial UK after Brexit. Will the new post-Brexit UK be a newly empowered country? Unlikely! Will a post-Brexit UK negotiate with the EU on equal terms? No, it will not. Post-Brexit UK will be a junior player in negotiations. Take a look back at the last 3 years. That is one way of looking ahead. History tends to repeat itself. Negotiating with Europe saw the UK diminished on the international stage and the exit from office of two prime ministers as continentals watched, probably with interest.
Brexit means divergence from Europe. Europe will view the UK as an adversary. There is no love lost between Europeans and Brexiters. Johnson believes that without the European Union breathing down his back the UK will be able to cut itself free from Europe, deregulate, and sign new trade deals with whosoever will.
EU will view UK as a competitor
But it is not as simple as that. After three years of difficult relations, the EU will view the UK as a competitor. The price of market access into the EU by the newly-exited UK will be compliance with EU rules first and foremost. In negotiations with a bloc of 27, the UK will naturally hold the weaker hand of cards. Countries with who the UK will negotiate trade deals after Brexit that have trade agreements with the EU will not want to do anything that jeopardizes that arrangement.
So the UK will be coming to class ‘late’. Then, Boris Johnson’s deal is a climb down. Johnson abandoned the promise not to allow a trade border with Northern Ireland, allowing Northern Ireland to effectively remain in the EU customs union.
The UK will be unable to banish European trawlers from its waters, another promise Johnson will put in the promises bin. The only way to resolve the fishing issue is through trade quotas — where EU boats are allowed to fish for limited numbers of fish in UK waters and vice versa — or UK trawlers will be limited to fishing in UK controlled waters mainly. That is not the best prospect for a healthy fishing industry.
The hard truth
Then Johnson and Brexiters will learn the hard truth about ‘rules of origin’. Rules of origin are the simple truth that manufacturing within the EU is far better than manufacturing in the post-Brexit UK because it is more economical to maintain supply chains within a much vaster and unified market called the EU with uniform rules and regulations across geographies. The same is true for nonmanufacturing retail industries. There are another term for the preceding: ‘economies of scale’.
Businesses thrive to a greater extent within vast borderless markets. A US business sitting in California has access to three hundred million customers. A European business sitting in Berlin has much the same access to a vast consumer market of $500 million than in the post-Brexit UK, with a market of $60 million.
Negotiating comprehensive trade deals takes time. Negotiations that take months to turn into years of negotiations. With a weaker hand, UK negotiators will be unable to do any deal that is not mainly in the interests of the EU. EU trade negotiators have been described as ‘cold-blooded’.
Leaving the EU will be painful economically
That is simply the nature of today’s world ruled by super regions. The EU is a regional superpower, much as the US and China. Leaving the EU will be painful economically. There will be a period of adjustment for the UK into a new reality of life outside the Union. Trade rules will be governed by the World Trade Organization.
New trade agreements with the USA, EU, and the rest of the world will take years, up to a decade, to be drawn and agreed. Johnson’s ‘Hard Brexit’ is all hubris for the attention of Leave Voters.
The Prime Minister will be unable to ‘cut and run’. And the belief that salvation will arrive via a trade deal with Donald Trump’s USA is a ‘very risky’ notion. Why? Well, simply look at the congressional wars taking place in Washington DC, and the inevitable impeachment of Donald Trump. The future for the UK is as ‘unpredictable’ as it can get.
Thanks to David Cameron and the 2016 Brexit Referendum.
Copyright 2024 BVI News, Media Expressions Limited. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or distributed.
More prattle for this ill-informed and ignorant wind-bag.
Why hate on Igwe for chronicling the end of imperial Britain?
They hate on him not because of his political commentary, but because of skin color, Afro ethnicity and their inferior complex thereof. That’s fact.
If Igwe was a white guy – it would be all acceptable with whites on this site- such hypocrites and racists – never heard a single racist comment out of Igwe’s mouth in all the years I have read his column
More deranged crap from a lunatic blowhard commenting on issues that have no relevance to the Territory. The fat man is clearly a racist touting his ignorance to the masses that are even more ignorant than he is. Please shut up and go away…..far, far away
Please leave racism out of your comments. This has nothing to do with racism. The EI is governed by unelected elites. The UK leaving will be beneficial to everyone. First of the UK will freely trade with America. The strongest economy right now. The EU is a failing idea. This is an economic argument. Nothing to do with racism.
The truth burns like a gun shot.
@Urgh and Deranged: Please pack your deranged, racist ugllly minded, small-minded, bigoted and obtuse small minded, hating on Igwe out of the yard and go else where hating on decent people are the norm.
Your wodrs are of no contribution to his article, the territory, the minds that read them or the general public who might be in need of intellectual upliftmen.
.
Al you two have done is ope up the comment section with filth. So, please crawl back in the sewer from where you came. Jess!! What filth walking on earth
A lot of people thought that the slaves were not allowed to read because they did not want them to learn, as if they could not read prior to the slave trade.
That’s far from the truth!! They were scholars, teachers, doctors, architects, astronomers, mathmaticians, etc. That’s why they kept the books away from them/us and forbid/destroy and put it into law.
So, that the next generation will not know how to read, or write because we had all these skills, but they brutalize it out of us and put religion in instead.
Today, the sons and daughters of those people are vehemently angry that minds such as Igwe can write eloquent political commentaries on their systems that they cannot match. That is called envy and jealousy.
They are angry that we can now read write and comment again, but more specifically, we can do it better than some to most of them can.
That is why we see the hatred being spewed out against him.
You are as deranged and racist as the fat man. Scholars, doctors, architects…lmao. Your ancestors lived in huts as they do till this day in Africa. They still bleed cows and consume the blood they collect only to do it over and over again inflicting pain to the animals. You are just north of Neanderthal’s and haven’t evolved at all since. The BVI would be just like Africa if it weren’t for the British lifting them Territory to its present day status. Remember, the financial segment was started and maintained by British lawyers which gave you Neanderthal’s the ability to support yourselves and become lazy and stagnant. With the financial sector soon to end it will s will see how the Belonger survives. My guess is that you will once again require the white man to sustain you. This Anonymous is the facts so if you find it racist so be it however, it is factual.
We really need to find out who this POS is hiding amongst us. It’s funny they’re probably not living or working in their precious UK or America but right here getting fat off us. It’s time to have a real “intimate” conversation.
If you hate us Virgin Islanders so much – please depart from here – we know who you are so don’t think Virgin Islanders are stupid and don’t know our haters
They are living right here among us. They are here in their SEGREGATED HILLTOP COMMUNITIES, sitting at their lap tops, drinking their expensive wines, degrading us with their obtuse minds and evul tongues.
But not only that, they are also in the publishing rppms of this site it appears. Why? It appears that the comment written by the racist english man are thumbs up capable, while the thumbs down application are disabled. One can ony wonder.
The blogger “TRUTH,” states it best, “we really need to find the person who is hiding among us” with such vike views about us and have a conversation with him/her, educate him/her and then respectfully ask him/her to leave our peaceful islands.
Becasue, if such mentalities were to continues living here, their hatred for us will continue to fester. Their arrogance will continue to grow and their lack of common sense will one day get the best of them that will cause them to create a blood bath, one that will see the completely extinguished from the soil of Tortola, and the introduction of the former slave master military.
They had had better evolve into civilized human beings or leave the BVI. There are no neanthethals, just proud WestI Indians of African descent who will never, never submit to the hatred, brutality, physical and mental control of the PALE MAN AGAIN.
NEVER, NEVR, NEVER!!! IT WOULD BE REVOLUTION NOW, REVOLUTION, TOMORROW AND REVOLUTION FOREVER. NO MILITARY FORCE, JAIL, POISON, WITCHCRAFT OR OTHER WILL STOP THE FORCE OF THE BLACK MAN FROM REMAINING FREE, FREE, FREEE!!!!! SO HATE ON PALE SKIN.
The writer of this article is so wrong on nearly every level.
The BVI needs brexit to happen so that there is less pressure from the EU in terms of the financial service industry. If he actually bothered to read any UK press he will have noticed that many anti-brexiteers are saying that the only reason brexit is happening is because the government is so desperate to protect the overseas dependencies such as the BVI from the EU’s demands regarding more transparency.
In simple terms if Brexit doesn’t happen then BVI is in trouble.
The BVI’s long term prosperity is certainly not paper pushing financial services -that has actually destroyed the local economy and local skill sets – the future of the BVI is in vocational skills and ecotourism – the quicker we get off the financial services bandwagon the better for this society
You clearly are totally ignorant of African history dating back centuries before your ancestors were even alive.
Go read zombie. You are filled with hatred and prejudice for the Black man. You will wrote such hatred, but i dare you come out in public with it . I dare you. See how how long you will live. You racist bigot.
@@Anonymous: You are racist, delusional and unfactual.
First, the Britsh did nothing for the BVI. The BVIslandsres brought the BVI to where it is today after the British slaving, murdering, raping, mutilating, exterminating and profiterring british cound no longer make mone and profits from the Black people.
Hence, name one initiative i which the white man english put forth to sustain us after the abolishment of slavery.
I have to go on an emergency, but i will get back at your ignorant, racist ass….
I guess you can’t read just as your brethren. I’ll repeat myself for the stupid. The British set up, managed and operated the financial sector which gave you lowlifes the ability to prosper without lifting a finger to work. The Brits filled your treasury with money so that “The” families could steal it just as they continue to do so today. Perhaps you can understand the truth this time.
The brits, if they set up the financial system, aren’t that a small token for centuries of free labour my ancestors contributed to making the brits the richest bastards of lands and sea for centuries, of which they still owe quad drillions to their off springs?
Come you ingnoramus.
Why are they still benefitting from if it was intended for the the benefir of the low life’s you mention?
Why are you an employee of sain sector.
Why are even among us? Why don’t just get a new mind set?
@@Anonymous…please we have passed that brainwashed crap that you are spewing…I guess you don’t realize what time it is…it’s later than you wanna think. Mentally the game is over…poor thing.Before you continue with your arrogant grandstanding could we please have the return of the Benin Bronzes. People of the caliber you describe would be incapable of producing such works. People of the caliber you describe would be incapable of documenting the kingship of the Edo and many other West African people in perfect chronological order from B.C. to present day…hello the truth has come to light..please have several seats…thank you.
Mental slavery is still existing in the bvi working hard in a job and happen to save 10000 dollars your doing drugs ,The brits come here with bullions hes an invester to get anything done in goverment if you black and born on the island rejected with no reason and no proper answer the rich fraud man put in his stuff he gets them same day it took me a long time to reconize that yall puppets not in charge of nothing because if this was your doing and you love jesus so much you wouldnt be doing these things corruption you beat the world in corruption here in the bvi i dont expect different from you guys because you jus like your master want to keep you a house slave.fools i have never heard someone who owns a company try to destroy your life because you dont want to work for them anymore yall still practice these evil things they did all kinda wicked things to me because i leave them they tormented me and i left the right way call me back in a trap to hurt me well well i had never know is so much evil in the bvi that because i try to leave this evil place they try all kind of things to hurt me but the lover of money is the root to all evil they come in our country to practice witchcraft evil all of them will burn in hell!!!
Per Wikipedia: ‘By 1913, the British Empire held sway over 412 million people, 23% of the world population at the time, and by 1920, it covered 35,500,000 km2 (13,700,000 sq mi), 24% of the Earth’s total land area. As a result, its political, legal, linguistic and cultural legacy is widespread.’ Clearly, Britannia ruled the waves and the sun never set over the British Empire.
Now, though, the sun indeed sets over the British Empire. During its peak, the UK had a good run. Life was good. It was living large. Controlling a large colony in the West Indies, Africa, Asia……etc, it used the colonies’ resources (all resources had to be shipped to England for use in their factories; no factories in the colonies) to build wealth and job opportunities for Britons.
The colonies, on the other hand, though in many instances resource-rich, the people were indeed poor with a low standard of living and quality of life. The UK was on top of the heap with its people believing that they were better off and superior to others. It was this attitude that fueled Brexit.
Essentially, the UK didn’t want ‘dem’ people having freedom of movement within the UK. So it cutoff its nose to spite its face; a small majority voted to exit the EU. Now, it is having buyer’s remorse. It ate its cake and wanted it too. It selfishly wanted to exit the EU but also wanted to feed on the benefits the EU offered.
Now, it is in a quandary and twisted into knots. The decision is how does it navigate through this mine field it laid for itself. It must decide if it must honor the wishes of the majority, albeit a slim majority, of the electorate or do what is in the best interest of the UK, not lean towards the xenophobic attitude of a slim majority. Can the UK afford to be isolated? Is it better off on the outside looking in, thumbing its nose at the rest of Europe?
Will Britons have a better quality of life and standard of living, economic improvement in the long-term, if it exits the EU? The UK exiting the EU will definitely have a ripple effect on the VI, along with other OTs, wouldn’t it? In 4 days, the way forward will be clear as mud. What a tangled web the UK has weaved. Brexit has already devoured to PMs and is working on a third.
You know what was the most disgusting things to witnessed when the new government got into power. After the people voted for change, whether they understood what real change meant or not. For some it would appears that change meant, it is now their time to garner ill-gotten riches from taxpayers/gov’t coffers.
But most disgustingly was how the new gov’t priorities were to first secure positions for all their cronies, which they campaigned against. And their frivolous spending for a fleet of non-value, materialistic vehicles for themselves, which proved once again that they were nothing more than opportunists who cared not about the constituents they serve. It was/is all a farce.
What would have truly amassed the highest level of Respect, both locally and internationally, was for each elected member, to go through their respected districts, whether they had documentation or not, search out the least amount them who were/are still suffering from the horror of hurricanes, Irma and Maria, and use the funds to help somewhat normalize these people’s lives.
Guaranteed, they were/are still busy securing the nectar-sucking, gov’t cultivated, richly supposed elites of our territory. They are the ones being helped.
Some of our people are still suffering, no roofs over their heads and their children heads. Some not able to afford the proper nutrition for them and their children; but instead, the new government of unconventional change rather use the funds to purchase frivolous, materialistic, nonsense for themselves, first things in priority. When will we ever learn. But then again, who really care? The cycle continues ♾.
Igwe,
Your previous was excellent.
What did your beloved expat loving NDP do – absolutely nada in 8 years- go fly a kite
Those hateful limey english t**ts are so subhuman and concieted that they even go on site and thumbs their own comments over and over. What a bunch ah obtuse and subhumans.
The racist (on both sounds) ranting under this article is a disgrace and all of you descending to name-calling and hatred should be ashamed. Not to mention the fact that there are many very questionable ‘facts’ being quoted.
Unfortunately, the above is probably a symptom of another poorly thought out article that is over-simplistic at best.
Just for starters, Dickson, why are you putting a “$” in front of the number of people in a market ($500m / $60m)? This is confusing and wrong.
Whilst Trump should be impeached, there is no guarantee this will happen. And regardless, this is not the reason the UK may not get a trade deal with the USA. I don’t know many people in the UK who think a trade deal with the USA will be a good deal anyway.
The referendum was indeed held by Cameron in 2016, but just holding a referendum does not guarantee the result of it. You could equally point the finger at Boris Johnson, Corbyn, and various others. Nevertheless, causes for votes to leave were numerous, some going back to Thatcher’s rule, others because of a misguided vision of empire, others because they don;t like foreigners, and yet more who thought it made economic sense.
Finally, someone made the comment that the UK wanted Brexit to protect the OT’s from European regulations. This is so wrong on so many levels, for starters: nobody on the UK referendum who voted for Brexit was thinking about the OTs, and the UK cannot stop an EU blacklisting especially if not in the EU.
Brexit is about the interest of the UK(England, Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland) and the crown dependencies of Jersey, Guernsey and Isle of Man. The UK has a caste, social, racial…….etc system. The interest and well-being of Overseas Territories (OT) weigh little, if any, in the Brexit decision. The OTs are caught in a quandary, for Brexit will impact their way forward yet it has no say in the decision making. The OTs can see itself heading off the cliff but cannot stop it.