COMMENTARY: The incumbent’s paradox
By Dickson Igwe, Contributor
The investigator searches for clues usually in the form of bits of hard evidence. He or she terms these dots or data points.
The effective investigator cannot ignore three factors that impact his form and ability to affect a successful outcome to an investigation: ego, intuition and logic. Of the preceding three ego is the most damaging and useless factor and leads frequently to delusion and error. Logic and rationale may appear the most effective factors, however ignore intuition, the gut instinct, at your peril.
Now the constellation of the investigative writer as previously stated is composed of datapoints, or dots of information. This he or she uses to drive a story or narrative by linking similar dots together. However, two unlikely dots can link and this is where investigation get complicated. The murder weapon with a clear set of finger prints and established ownership may not have been used by the owner to carry out the murder. This is where intuition comes in.
Not all dots are equal: in the investigator’s constellation there are hubs, stars and floating matter such as meteorites using an astrophysicist’s terms. The hub holds a tremendous amount of information and is where the outcome of the narrative frequently terminates.
OK. In establishing the likely outcome of the next Virgin Islands General Election one massive star- massive dot, in the constellation of the investigator is the power of the incumbent to affect an outcome. However, history has shown this investigator that incumbency is a double-edged sword. It will cut the incumbent as equally sharply as it will cut the adversary or opponent.
Voter trust is the second dot that orbits the star termed the incumbency factor. When a government is trusted and competent it is very difficult for that government to lose and election.
There are various analogies both local and international that prove that fact. Bill Clinton was a ‘worthless philanderer’ but was re-elected because voters trusted his competence: his ability with policy.
On the other hand, the incompetence of Donald Trump will see him come crashing down in the midterms in spite of the fact Trump is the charismatic leader of a vast white supremacist movement. The failed Iran war will cost the Republicans, come the Mid Terms.
The incumbent factor is very much at play in the Virgin Islands and will affect the upcoming General Elections.
Do voters believe the incumbents have succeeded with the mandate it was given at the last election and even before that time?
Or will voters punish this government for perceived incompetence.
Predicting the outcome of the next Virgin Islands General Election is a very hard task owing to the fact that the level of anger against this government especially with the hated GREEDY BILL, remains a toxic element in the mix of factors that will affect the election outcome.
With the Virgin Islands incumbency factor- time alone will tell how it affects voter intention.
Dickson Igwe is an Investigative Writer
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The power of incumbency posits that current serving members generally have the electoral advantage over challengers due to a) name recognition, b) access to institutional resources, c) performance in office delivering on promises, d) financial backing,e) riding current positive political waves ( crest), f) level of confidence in current members, g) positive feelings on current political environment, etc.
Politics is about solving problems. Generally, Candidates either incumbent, challenger or new aspirant must make reasonable, practical, etc., promises to get elected. However, promises must accompanied by how the promise(s) will be funded, timeline for attainment, opportunity cost of the promise. Challengers often have a tough row to hoe, demonstrating that incumbent fail to deliver in the best interest of the people, the territory, delivering for the public interest, etc. They have to show that he/she has a plan to deliver with the same or less resources a higher level, better quality of services. A challenger benefits from a negative political winds of change. The evident truth is that political aspirants out of office profess to have all the fixes, solutions,,etc, as to what ails government. However, in office presents a different tory, ie, services have to be delivered with available resources. Government face the challenge of delivering the most/best services to the most people..
The bottom line is that the end of the day it is up to the voters who are elected or not..Voting matters. To the victor go the spoils. Consequently, the electorate must get engaged, do their research, ask questions, decide on a choice, gone the poll and vote on Election Day. However, casting their votes completed, the electorate cannot go in hibernation until the next election cycle; they must stay engaged holding members responsible and accountable by holding their feet to fire.
Did him say ego, intuition and logic??
And here is the very definition of EGO…him!
So sick of him coming on here with his coat and tie wanting so bad to be relevant. Nothing to say Nothing to offer. An empty shell.
The phenomenon of Trump requires more granularity than simply dismissing it as white supremacy. That explanation may be emotionally satisfying, but it is not a serious enough analysis. Some of his supporters may indeed hold racist views, but to place all of them in that category is to miss the deeper causes — and Democrats who miss those causes may find themselves losing again.
Iowa is an overwhelmingly white state, roughly 95%, and it voted for Barack Obama twice. It then voted for Donald Trump twice. That matters. They supported Obama, then later rejected Biden and chose Trump. In 2016, because Trump ran against Hillary Clinton, one could argue that misogyny played some role. But in 2020, Trump ran against Joe Biden, a white male, and still won the state.
The issue, in large part, is control. The United States is not broadly anti-immigrant; it is anti-chaos. Biden and Harris were seen as lacking a clear and credible plan for the border, and the situation appeared to run out of control. Obama, by contrast, projected a much firmer command of immigration enforcement.
So voters on the fence chose a candidate who might be unpredictable, but who they believed would impose order at the border, over a party they saw as too focused on race and insufficiently focused on broader issues.
The US remains a majority-white country. Black Americans make up about 13% of the population. Until Democrats understand that math and offer solutions that speak to the country as a whole, while moving beyond the limits of identity politics, they will remain vulnerable to candidates like Trump.
Some ah U ) just love to criticize and when the someone tells it like it is AL-YO rise from your tomb and try to capitalize on it / by YAPPING YAPPING & YAPPING & YAPPING,) why not write your own version of whats really going on and let us decide who’s article got it right , or who’s just airing out their mouths , that has been dormant for a while now , or just letting nour foul AIR / please let us breathe the fresh air that the lord gave us•••