Next election could produce BVI’s largest coalition government
Political commentator Cindy Rosan is warning that the BVI could be heading toward its most fragmented election yet — one that may ultimately force the formation of what she describes as the “biggest coalition” government in the territory’s history.
Speaking on her Morning Facts breakfast programme earlier this week, Rosan pointed to a surge in political groups and emerging movements preparing to contest the next general election, signalling a shift away from the territory’s long-standing dominance by the Virgin Islands Party (VIP) and the National Democratic Party (NDP).
“As I’m counting here, there might be as many as six parties and movements contesting the next election,” Rosan said, noting that beyond the two established parties, several new or loosely formed entities are positioning themselves to enter the race, alongside independent candidates.
According to Rosan, while many of these groups appear confident in fielding At-Large candidates, they are collectively struggling to fill district-level seats — an imbalance that could significantly influence the final composition of the House of Assembly.
“You’re talking about a large field of contenders… and we’re going to have to wade through a lot to come up with the next House,” she explained.
The commentator suggested that this growing political diversity could splinter the vote across multiple groups, increasing the likelihood that no single party secures a clear majority. That scenario, she argued, would almost certainly require post-election negotiations and alliances.
“I believe it’s going to be the truest coalition this territory has ever seen,” Rosan added.
Her assessment comes against the backdrop of an already blended governing arrangement. The current administration is led by the VIP but relies on support from cross-bench figures, including independent legislator Lorna Smith, Julian Fraser of the Progressive United (PU), and an affiliate of the now-disbanded PVIM, Stacy Mather.
Rosan said ongoing internal tensions, shifting loyalties, and dissatisfaction within traditional party ranks are helping to fuel the rise of alternative political groupings.
As candidate slates continue to take shape in the coming months, she noted that the true scale of the political contest will become clearer. However, if Rosan’s projection holds, voters could be faced with one of the most complex ballots in recent history — one that may ultimately reshape how governments are formed in the Virgin Islands.
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She is not wrong. There is a lot of fragmentation as well as distrust of the major political parties that voters have lost faith in the party system. Voters are looking for persons who have the interest of our islands as paramount rather than allegiance to party. It makes for an interesting election cycle.
You guys are far too emotional. How can she be right? The more parties/candidates contesting the easier it will be for VIP to win the government again. Even if its a coalition they would still be the majority. This happened the last 2 cycles and we are still here playing dumb? Natalio LOST the 2023 election. Now in 2026 he has Lorna, Fraser and Mather. Do we refer to them as a coalition govt despite the fact that they technically are? NO! It is a VIP govt and the same thing will happen next time unless one united, strong team faces off against VIP. Natalio is smiling from ear to ear now with the thought od 2 or 3 parties challenging them. PVIM taught us this lesson and here we are still talking nonsense.
Cyndi is profound and clear unlike the melee speculation of Claude who is been paid to say things or takes hostage of politicians for a payoff, but Cyndi analysis is visionary but in the vicissitudes of time it shall unfold to everyone shock since politics is dynamic.
Pipe dreams
Again, opinions are like back doors; everyone has one. While you and many others will want to contest in the AL pool, that field will be swarming with dead weight such as yourself. You are like CsC and the other ‘talk show’ pundits. Good for entertainment and not managing public sector affairs.
Those of your ilk that cower from running in the districts know that the people in those districts would not give you all the rim time of day. Moreover, the major parties and their disruptor agents ply you and others with info be it truthful or not to try to sway votes one way or the other.
So – go sit down and do not waste your time contesting my gyal…stick with running your trap and make money off of that.
Alrighty Gumpster. Feel better after getting that off your chest?!
A large field of candidates could work to the VIP’s advantage under our first past the post system. Elections here are won district by district, not by national vote share, so take any district as an example.
If there are 100 votes in District A and six candidates are contesting the seat, the vote inevitably fragments. In that scenario, the VIP, as an established party with a reliable base, could win with around 35 votes, or 35%, because the remaining 65 votes are split among the other five contenders. If no one else crosses that 35 vote threshold, the VIP candidate is first past the post and wins the seat.
This dynamic can repeat across multiple districts. The more crowded the field is, the easier it becomes for a party with an existing base to secure victories with pluralities rather than majorities.
Similarly, a crowded At Large race can tilt the field toward the VIP. Under the same first past the post system, the four At Large seats go to whoever finishes in the top four, not whoever commands a majority. So, when six or seven groups flood the ballot, the opposition vote gets splintered, while the VIP’s base stays concentrated. That means the VIP candidates with a solid, disciplined bloc of support can slide into the top four with a plurality, even if most voters collectively preferred someone else. In a fragmented field, vote splitting becomes the VIP’s quiet ally.
If the goal is to challenge the VIP effectively, the key may not be to expand the field but to narrow it to a smaller number of strong, consolidated candidates rather than spreading votes thinly across several new groups and independents.
Thanks this was a good strategic analysis.very helpful
This lady is far too emotional to be involved in politics. There’s no doubt that there is a high chance that we may see a coalition government due to the ‘crossings’ but anybody that understands politics, especially in a small place like the BVI would know that if you have 4 or 5 parties the incumbent stands the better chance. The only coalition would be where the Government has about 5 or 6 members winning and need 2 or 3 to form the government. That’s not a ‘large’ coalition, that would be the VIP winning once again should they remain united, as they would have the leverage in such a situation. Some people just love to hear themselves speak and see their words in the news so they just talk shit over and over.
Hey wiggie – you got a new name for 2026 – hip hop hooray- you got a chance to flex off on poor cindy – using sarcasm , more power to you . Say wah you like – but you are not cindy or walwyn’s league, so go play with your WIG while U suck your finger.