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Epidemiology Report: COVID-19 could infect 89% of BVI population in three months if left unchecked

Statistics from the Epidemiology Unit has shown that if social distancing measures are not properly adhered in the British Virgin Islands, nearly 90 percent of its population could become infected with COVID-19 within a three-month period.

Minister for Health Carvin Malone cited the statistics during a live public broadcast on Tuesday, March 31.

He said those statistics — which is the result of an investigation carried out by the Epidemiology Unit — were vital in government’s decision to introduce a new curfew that will run for an additional 14 days.

He said the analysis of how the virus spreads allowed government to surmise that local coronavirus cases could rise rapidly if they were to lift the curfew altogether

“It was estimated that in 12 to 15 days, 10.5 to 12 percent of the population would be affected by COVID-19 if it goes unchecked. This equates to close to 3,750 persons if it goes unchecked. If the measures are not properly taken, or not adhered to — if left unchecked — calculations show that in 90 days, 89.8 percent of the population would be infected,” Minister Malone stated.

He added: “Each [infected] persons can pass on to two to three others who then spread it to the next two to three persons, such that a single case quickly leads to hundreds. This trend has been seen in the Caribbean, especially in the neighbouring islands.”

Social Distancing reduces spread by almost 85%

Minister Malone also said that data showed when social distancing was implemented for a period of 15 days — with the assumption of a 95 percent decrease in social contact between persons — an approximate 85 percent reduction in disease transmission was seen.

“This reduction could be a consequence of those persons infected within the period of 9 to 23rd March 2020 having recovered or out of the infectious stage; with only the second, or in some cases third, generation remaining infected,” the minister said while citing statistics

“Extension of the territorial shut down would facilitate recovery in a percentage of those second and tertiary contacts, reducing the number of still infected contacts circulating in the population when the shutdown is lifted,” the Minister further explained.

Curfews and Social Distancing measures needed now and not later

Malone said it was necessary that government implement these various COVID-19 measures, despite only having three cases.

He, therefore, urged residents and businesses to continue to adhere to the temporary restrictions in place, to prevent a resurgence of COVID-19 transmissions in the population.

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20 Comments

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  1. Prevention From a Killer says:

    Keep the doors closed and locked for as long as it takes.

    There is not only the natural transmission to fight, there is also the willful, evil and devious person to be fearful of. The one who will willfully contaminate areas just to sicken others.

    Then there is the hateful, hopelessly deranged Black poeple human hater and racist living among here, or might be a secret agent sent to cause havoc of destabalzation and destruction.

    There is urgent need to be extra careful now. Keep the doors lock until the scientist and medical specialist and conditions on the ground indicate it is safe to open them again.

    Let us be and stay safe. Let us live to enjoy these here Virgin Islands. Dead people have never been known to enjoy shit.

    Like 7
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    • @Prevention says:

      Even in a time like this the racist build hit has to rear its ugly head from you people. How disgusting you are. The population needs to be culled of people like you. Everyone else stay safe.

      Like 10
  2. Hmm says:

    And yet many people are still not taking it serious. People are still disobeying the lockdown order and are wondering around…some hardly wash their hands. The sad thing is, the ignorant ones who probably should get it…might not get it..but the ones who take their hygiene seriously….may or may not catch it from some nasty person.

    Like 5
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  3. Social Security says:

    I get it, but not entirely sure about the statistical analysis! Seems premature and assumptive. Nothing like a good bit of fear mongering in order to keep us mases scared, and unquestionably obedient.

    Like 8
    Dislike 4
    • What says:

      How can you not be entirely sure of the statistical analysis if you haven’t even be exposed (or probably even understand) the maths behind it? Statistics is useful in making predictions, whether or not you may find them ‘premature and assumptive’ is ignorant.

      Like 3
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    • Ajic says:

      It is people like you who will cause this viruses to spread. The statistics are an accurate indication nof what will happen. THIS VIRUS IS NOT YHR FLU. IT IS VERY VERY INFECTIOUS. Every health organization use statistics be to inform their decision making and judging from what is going on the statistical evidence given about COVID-19 IS SPOT ON. So please keep your ignorance to yourself and stop trying to undermine the work of the Government.

      Like 2
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  4. FrontLine Worker says:

    Yes! That’s so true. BVI wants nothing to do with this virus, it is too small for this.

  5. Wow says:

    While I do think the virus is dangerous and precautions are necessary, those figures are nothing short of fearmongering!

    Like 9
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    • Really?? says:

      You people are ignorant and stupid. JUST LOOK AT NEW YORK. COVID-19 was also predicted to explode in NY and the US. THEY IGNORED THE SCIENTIFIC WARNING. LOOK AT THEM NOW. US Is NUMBER ONE IN THE NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CASES. We had better heed the warning because I guarantee you we have more than three cases.

      Like 8
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  6. John says:

    OK people stop and think for a second. WILL people be in infected with corona virus or COVID19? Because as far as I know coronavirus has been around for ages and it include things like: the common cold, pneumonia, and other respiratory diseases(usually seasonal). So if you testing for corona virus, anyone with the common cold or any o the respiratory disease will test positive yet that doesn’t mean that the person has the so called COVID 19. That then begs the question is: Is there a test that isolates the supposed virus called covid19? or are people being tested for coronavirus?

    Like 10
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    • Smith says:

      Good question and nobody anywhere around the world is answering it. Also for persons with pre-existing issues, if they have complications and happen to test positive for COVID19, how do they determine the cause of death? Just attribute it to COVID19 and that’s it? I think the danger with all this is that somehow people are taking other illnesses more lightly and that will cause even more problems for us. People get sick from flu etc and die all the time and we are now in the last couple weeks of what is usually termed ‘flu season’ so no surprise that persons globally are dying from flu symptoms, it happens every year. IT is good to see everyone taking precautions and we should’ve been doing these things to combat common flu and other illnesses from years ago.

    • thoughtful sailor says:

      The tests are for COVID-19.

      • How do you know? says:

        How do you know that? Can you enlighten us?

        • Scientist says:

          Because it’s a virus specific test, not a generic test. The virus was sequenced in record time, which allowed very quick development.
          As to comments related to statistics, it pays to recall that statistics apply to population rather than to individuals.

  7. strupes says:

    Those percentages are not realistic, pure scare tactics

    Like 4
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  8. vip heckler says:

    This health minister figures were’nt the same when he was smoking all of us out with the pockwood pond fires

    Like 2
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  9. ?? says:

    So every year around the world thousands died from the seasonal flu, despite the flu shot being available and we never had a panic. The seasonal flu is also very contagious and cause symptoms very similar to the COVID-19 if you get it badly. So why are people more afraid of COVID-19 than the seasonal flu? COVID has killed over 20,000 people globally in 3 months.

    The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. [21] In the United States, individual cases of seasonal flu and flu-related deaths in adults are not reportable illnesses; consequently, mortality is estimated by using statistical models.

    WHY no panic then but panic now??

    https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/219557-overview#a6

    Like 8
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    • ?? Answered says:

      ??: “WHY no panic then but panic now??”

      Answer: The seasonal flu was a global pandemic that was first identified in 1918, so yes, there was panic back then and the response was somewhat similar to this one. Doctors and researchers have had more than 100 years to study influenza’s epidemiology, virology, etc. so there are currently thousands of treatments out there, along with the shot, that can treat it smoothly.

      ??: “COVID has killed over 20,000 people globally in 3 months.”

      Answer: At the moment that I am writing this, COVID has killed nearly 50,000 people globally in those same 3 months (more than twice as much as you claim), with almost 1,000,000 people infected worldwide. These numbers are growing exponentially every single day. It is estimated that 70% the world’s population may contract the virus based on the statistical trends that we’re seeing. That’s roughly 6 billion people. The influenza virus has had more than 100 years to spread around the world and infect the millions of people per year like you stated. COVID-19 was discovered in December of 2019 in China. It’s likely that within another 100 years it will be just as or even more common as the influenza virus, but by then there would be lots of drugs and shots used to treat it (just like influenza) so it wouldn’t be a big deal, just like how influenza isn’t really a big deal now.

      ??: “The seasonal flu is also very contagious and [can] cause symptoms very similar to the COVID-19 if you get it badly. So why are people more afraid of COVID-19 than the seasonal flu?

      This one is simple: COVID-19 has no vaccine and VERY minimal available therapeutic medicines, influenza has loads of treatments because it’s been studied more and we’re more familiar with it. I’m sure if the doctor told you that you had the flu before COVID-19 came about nobody would say anything because the doctor can simply prescribe medication. With COVID-19 it’s not that simple, because there is very little medication to prescribe and that is quite dangerous…

      ??: “The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths.

      Answer: Notice how the WHO states ‘annual’ epidemics, indicating that the influenza virus has been studied year after year. That isn’t the case with COVID-19 because we’ve only seen it in action for 3 months. You simply can’t make predictions on the average number of cases per year yet. And also notice how you’ve stated ‘severe illnesses’. The number of individuals who contract influenza per year with little to no symptoms is likely 100 times that number you’ve stated, and the number of cases in total (with total = mild symptoms + no symptoms + severe illness) is likely way bigger than that (likely in the billions).

      ??: In the United States, individual cases of seasonal flu and flu-related deaths in adults are not reportable illnesses; consequently, mortality is estimated by using statistical models.”

      Answer: They’re not reportable because again, we’ve all caught the flu at one point in time and don’t inform our doctors, we usually just drink bush tea and rub Vicks on ourselves and take the day off, and there are already thousands of different medications out there that you could pick up without prescription. You wouldn’t report all of the cases and deaths caused by the common cold either. With COVID-19, no working medicine means this requires severe looking into and very precious precautionary measures should be taken. With influenza, you can be more lenient because at least you have the knowledge that there is medication to treat it at your immediate disposal.

      Like 27
  10. Love says:

    You guys remember Irma?????…. change our ways, seek God, treat people with love in the BVI. I know we would of get hit again.

    Like 1
    Dislike 2
  11. Wondering says:

    As minister of health @ social what are Mr Malone’s medical credentials.

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